Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 35.310525 38.068274 41.085804 44.661299 48.820906 53.556968 59.431285
2025-09-21 30.895299 34.411507 38.497257 43.685615 50.238947 58.453601 69.912650
2025-09-28 28.177558 31.980692 36.559446 42.628137 50.715814 61.555368 78.080247
2025-10-05 27.230304 31.479272 36.778336 44.118037 54.480043 69.464764 94.940825
2025-10-12 26.267881 30.813993 36.647292 45.029232 57.470685 76.765051 113.349363
2025-10-19 25.298116 30.028419 36.240738 45.446572 59.719346 83.315356 133.184147
2025-10-26 24.317552 29.138623 35.590400 45.398086 61.180220 88.806412 153.673013
2025-11-02 23.220543 28.012465 34.512627 44.580105 61.238807 91.728474 169.931097
2025-11-09 22.192428 26.917365 33.397015 43.587065 60.845354 93.666188 184.950956
2025-11-16 21.347367 26.027811 32.514757 42.870215 60.820784 96.329873 204.267406
2025-11-23 20.583680 25.212573 31.688635 42.166604 60.718648 98.800677 225.370097
2025-11-30 20.354920 25.134067 31.931850 43.197581 63.931962 109.595572 292.871635
2025-12-07 19.764736 24.528964 31.376678 42.901214 64.658391 114.946117 348.835680
2025-12-14 19.068019 23.742853 30.508455 42.011990 64.106127 116.921184 392.116753
2025-12-21 18.398416 22.969042 29.619931 41.021072 63.224184 117.794493 432.621957
2025-12-28 18.334806 23.073236 30.084623 42.413072 67.504804 135.146393 724.433469
2026-01-04 18.148790 22.985486 30.239389 43.262880 70.776473 151.403543 1354.282903
2026-01-11 17.875422 22.753851 30.149201 43.651843 73.072211 165.842600 3209.790712
2026-01-18 17.530634 22.400148 29.842239 43.606663 74.331326 177.240504 15988.280500
2026-01-25 17.064532 21.846190 29.183894 42.844099 73.716471 180.486687 NaN
2026-02-01 16.590660 21.266815 28.462399 41.917361 72.584280 181.037870 NaN
2026-02-08 16.189382 20.787773 27.889600 41.247705 72.041779 184.326285 NaN
2026-02-15 15.809581 20.331549 27.338653 40.589868 71.459629 187.316632 NaN